Study of sustainable tourism development and carrying capacity of the City of Dubrovnik Action with Plan
Research area : Sustainable tourism development
Project manager : Ph.D. Zoran Klarić
Implementation period : 2020.
Client : City of Dubrovnik
The study of sustainable tourism development and carrying capacity of the City of Dubrovnik Action with Plan consists of five parts:
• The first part consists of introduction and objectives of the Study, including explaination of the concepts of sustainable development and carrying capacity, as well as methodology of the work.
• The second part of the study consists of an analysis of the current situation, which includes general characteristics of Dubrovnik as a destination, analysis of infrastructure, analysis of the tourism resources and features of tourism development, as wll as the results of three survey surveys that relate to Dubrovnik residents and visitors.
• The third part deals with the carrying capacity indicators for Dubrovnik as a destination, divided into for four basic groups - spatial-ecological, infrastructural, socio-demographic and political-economic.
• The fourth part is a synthesis of data, pointing out the key areas of vulnerability in more detail, which in the case of Dubrovnik is primarily road infrastructure and the congestion of the historic core by pedestrians. On this basis, development scenarios are elaborated and a concrete calculation of the carrying capacity is made on the basis of the most favorable scenario for sustainable tourism development.
• The fifth part of the study consists of an action plan consisting of recommendations for the implementation of the sustainable development scenario, the presentation of concrete development projects and the implementation plan.
Based on the results of the Study it can be estimated that, relative to the 2019 values, tourism growth can be estimated at around 10% in the high season, about 20% in the medium season, and more than 30% in the off-season. According to such calculation the number of tourist nights during the year could increase from the current 4,300,000 to about 5,200,000 nights, and the maximum number of visitors to the historic core should not exceed 8,000, although by better regulation of pedestrian movement it could eventually increase up to values of about 10,000 visitors.